Natural Disasters:  

                          Why More People are Dying

The Kasmir earthquake. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, floods in Bombay and Guatemala, the Indian Oceans tsunami- is the world entering an era of more frequent natural catastrophes? In its 2005 World Disaster Report, released this month, the International Red Cross counted 360 natural disasters in 2004, up from 239 in 1995. But the truly striking feature is the sharp increase in the number of people killed by catastrophes: 901,177 from 1995 to 2004, according to the Red Cross, compared to 643,418 people in the previous decade.

   One explanation for the numbers is beyond dispute: popular growth. More and more people are living in at- risk areas, whether it's hurricane- hit coastlines of Florida, the floodplains of eastern China or earthquake zones in Indonesia. Even in alpine Kashmir, where the latest quake struck, the population has increased by an estimated 60% between 1981 and 2000. No matter where natural disasters hit, they will affect more people today than they would have done in the past- and will affect more still, tomorrow. Bangladesh, prone to floods and earthquakes, could add up to 100 million people to its population of 144 million by 2050.    

                               Forecasting Danger

This means of forecasting natural disasters, such s floods, hurricanes, tomadoes, and tsunamis, and of communicating disaster information to the public, have improved immensely as science and technology have advanced. In this essay, Roger A. Pielke, Jr., a scentist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, warms that although methods are more reliable now than ever, forecasters will never be able to predict disasters with absolute certainty. Pielke stresses the importance of public awareness and planning in minimizing the havoc that disasters can wreak. 
             Because the stakes are so high , the science of disaster prediction has a bright future. The various projects and programs illustrate that disaster prediction is a topic of concern to scientists and policy makers alike. Hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes all show that the effective use of disaster predictions not only requires advanced technology but also requires advanced technology but also requires that society consider the entire process of prediction- forecasts, communication, and use of information. Because they cannot predict the future with certainly, and use of information.